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GramPa
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Discussion Starter #1
I usually like to be on the right side of things, but not this time (Hurricane and thoughts of same)...I live 2 Kms from Bay of Fundy and will post pics, if this hurricane makes it to My Place and surrounding areas....Interesting to note that a powerful perigean syzygy is only 4 days after our predicted hurricane landfall...Ocean Temps are the highest now, than ever previous recorded, we're in the mist of an extreame heat wave 95 F today and feels like 108. High Tide on Sept 4th is at 9:47 AM at 40 feet...But over the next 4 days our high tide climbs to 47.2 Feet...The after effects of this hurricane is going to linger. Could this be another Saxby Gale? Hope not...Prayers to all in its path on both side of the border.:goodl::OHCAN
 

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You stay safe up there. I used to fly into areas up there all the time, really nice people. Hope Earl just brings you a little rain....
 

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Here's hopin' it doesn't end up like another Juan. I was living in town when that hit and not in the direct path so there wasn't much serious damage directly around me.
I moved here last year (Hardwood Lands, Milford area) and I still see the destruction that it caused, trees uprooted, in some spots the woods are **** near impassable, and that's in my back yard.
Not much you can do I guess except hope for the best and hope the weather forecast is wrong as usual.
Good luck to all...Mike
 

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Batten down the hatches, Earl is probably going to hit hard pretty close by...at that point it will be weakening, but it may still be a CAT 2 hurricane with very strong winds, heavy rain, and a storm surge.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_1/00/images/hwrf_pcp_060m.gif

The above images shows the Hurricane model forecast from NOAA valid 1200 UTC Saturday...note the low center of 948mb centered just southwest of Nova Scotia. The storm is forecast to continue moving rapidly northward/northeastward thereafter....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
 

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Best of luck to our Candian friends, looks like it coming right at you. Hopefully it will be a fast mover and will not hang around long.

Note to myself - Got to make a trip up to the Bay of Fundy. I have vaque memories of a trip there in 1967. Remember it being a really beautiful place with ice cold water.
 

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I hope Earl moves East and leaves everyone alone;but it doesn't look that way. Last I heard it took a western turn. Good luck to all in its path !
 

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It looks like it will be a very fast mover, with probably a 6 hr period of the most focused winds/rainfall. However, even a weak Hurricane means business, so I would recommend everyone potentially threatened by Earl to be prepared.
 

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Heh...

My trucks tank is empty,so is my moms Caravan,and my car has maybe 3/8th of a tank..got no money to buy any gas for the tractors OR the vehicles...my cars about 6" off the ground,not so hot to be in, if you need to cross a flodded street or intersection...truck needs brake lines and much other work,that I put off doing this week,so as not to disable it,in case I need to move it...It's driveable but not trustworthy,too many rusted things ready to pop like oil cooler lines,etc..:(

I dont have a generator other than my Lincwelder,which has a sick Onan on it that'll probably grenade if I run it much,and its a 50 cycle unit,which I cant use with most appliances anyway--plus its only 110V and our well pump is 220V...so it wont do us much good ...:rolleyes:..I haven't used any of my chain saws in at least a year,good luck getting those fired up in a hurry..

Yep--well prepared here--:rolleyes:,hope it either misses us,passes by qickly with little/no damage,and if not,oh well--:(..
 

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GramPa
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Discussion Starter #11
Tractor-Holic...Only thing I might do in your case is sharpen the chain saw and syphon some fuel to mix for it....The big hoop-la on generators is over done. After a week where are you going to buy fuel for it??? NO POWER means no GAS STATIONS...Vehicals running or not, where are you going to go..NO POWER. I have coleman lanterns and emergency wood burning stove that is in an outbuilding...an old hand pump that I would hook up to the Deep Well..and enough food in Cellar for about 4-5 months. Link to my area.

http://www.novascotiawebcams.com/bay-of-fundy/halls-harbour.html#axzz0yPCbaYlV



Heh...

My trucks tank is empty,no money to buy any gas for the tractors OR the vehicles....truck needs brake lines. I dont have a generator other than my Lincwelder......,I haven't used any of my chain saws in at least a year,good luck getting those fired up in a hurry..

Yep--well prepared here--:rolleyes:,hope it either misses us,passes by qickly with little/no damage,and if not,oh well--:(..
 

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GramPa
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Discussion Starter #12
The CHC trapped fetch wave model as well as well as the wam and NOAA
wave watch model indicate significant wave heights in excess of
10 metres could reach the coast of Southwestern Nova Scotia on
Saturday
Latest forcasted wave height... This can't be good? Does anyone know what how these waves compare to what we have had before?
 

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The CHC trapped fetch wave model as well as well as the wam and NOAA
wave watch model indicate significant wave heights in excess of
10 metres could reach the coast of Southwestern Nova Scotia on
Saturday
Latest forcasted wave height... This can't be good? Does anyone know what how these waves compare to what we have had before?
Lawnboy,

"Significant wave heights" refers to random/rogue waves that are as much as 50-100% larger than the average wave height. So the 10M waves should not be the norm/average.

Still, those are huge waves. But the good news is that they could be bigger. For mountainous waves to form, you need three things: High wind, long fetch, and time. You'll have the first two, but fortunately this storm is moving fast so there should not be enough time for the truly gargantuan waves to form. During the "Perfect Storm" of 1991, for instance, waves as large as 25-30M were recorded (off-shore).

But don't trifle with these waves either. Anyone in a coastal area should stay well away from the shoreline. Seems like every big coastal storm we lose sightseers come to watch the fury of the storm, who get too close to the water's edge and are swept away. Often they get too close because they are fooled by the average wave height, only to be swept away by one of those much larger "significant wave heights" that randomly appear.

Be careful up there. This may sound a bit morbid, but if you plan to show us some photos of the destruction, it would be nice to see some "before" shots too.:hide::hide:
 

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GramPa
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Discussion Starter #14 (Edited)
Yeah...too many Kids and a wife would like me to stick around for a bit...Soooo...I posted the webcam that is located 2KM from my house...so you and anyone else interested can see what is going on in LIVE TIME... here it is again www.novascotiawebcams.com then select Bay of Fundy TAB....BTW thanks for the wave height info...
 

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Lawnboy,

"Significant wave heights" refers to random/rogue waves that are as much as 50-100% larger than the average wave height. So the 10M waves should not be the norm/average.

Still, those are huge waves. But the good news is that they could be bigger. For mountainous waves to form, you need three things: High wind, long fetch, and time. You'll have the first two, but fortunately this storm is moving fast so there should not be enough time for the truly gargantuan waves to form. During the "Perfect Storm" of 1991, for instance, waves as large as 25-30M were recorded (off-shore).
I'm going to play my meteorologist card....significant wave height does not refer to rogue waves. Rogue waves are irregular and unpredictable. The significant wave height refers to the maximum regular wave height associated with the storm.

However you cut it, the southern Shore of Nova Scotia is going to get hit pretty hard. Earl will likely be a large cat 1 hurricane at that point and moving rapidly north. Wind gusts will probably exceed 80 mph across the most potent part of the storm.
 

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I'm going to play my meteorologist card....significant wave height does not refer to rogue waves. Rogue waves are irregular and unpredictable. The significant wave height refers to the maximum regular wave height associated with the storm....
PC, It's an interesting topic. And I probably spoke inartfully. I forgot that the meaning of "rogue" wave has different connotations.

Some people think of a rogue only as an extremely rare anomaly of giant proportions, while others use the term more technically to refer to oversized waves that come along both at random intervals, yet predictably. That sounds like a contradiction, but what is meant is that in a big storm you can predict with certainty that these waves will come along at random intervals.

I believe the technical definition of a rogue wave is any wave that is at least 50% larger than the average wave height. So strictly speaking if you are experiencing 5 foot waves, a 7.5 footer would be considered rogue. I know that's not the layperson's connotation, but it is an important distinction because any wave that is markedly larger than the average waves being experienced, can be a big problem for mariners.

But I want to make sure folks understand that "significant wave height" is not the average wave height. Instead, it refers to the average height of the top 1/3 reported wave heights.

In a big blow (like a gale, storm, or hurricane) a "rogue" will come along much more frequently than in settled conditions, typically anywhere between 1 in 5 and 1 in 10 waves (in other words, between 10-20% of all waves will be markedly higher than the average). So, in storm conditions, that "significant wave height" measurement will be heavily biased by the "rogues", making it significantly higher than the average wave height.

As I mentioned, it's the "rogues' that are the big problem for mariners, so it needs to be that way. Think about it. Joe boater knows his boat can handle 10 foot waves. But if he goes out in average ten foot seas, he is almost guaranteed to encounter some that are 50% larger, which his boat can't handle. So the "significant wave height" measurement/prediction is much more important to the mariner, which is why it's preferred over average wave heights.

Anyway, let's all hope Earl diminishes and that New England and N.S. bounce back quickly. Stay safe up there!
 

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GramPa
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Discussion Starter #18
partlycloudy-Your early expectations are more informative than my latest local forcast...Take a look at this for a forecast.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/canada/index_e.html?id=NS

Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings
Public WarningsMarine WarningsSpecial Weather Statements Warnings
Kings County
4:49 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Tropical storm warning for
Kings County issued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.


Kings County
4:49 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Wind warning for
Kings County issued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.


Kings County
4:49 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Rainfall warning for
Kings County issued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.



Watches
Kings County
4:49 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010
Tropical storm watch for
Kings County continued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.



I'm going to play my meteorologist card....significant wave height does not refer to rogue waves. Rogue waves are irregular and unpredictable. The significant wave height refers to the maximum regular wave height associated with the storm.

However you cut it, the southern Shore of Nova Scotia is going to get hit pretty hard. Earl will likely be a large cat 1 hurricane at that point and moving rapidly north. Wind gusts will probably exceed 80 mph across the most potent part of the storm.
 

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GramPa
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Discussion Starter #19
This Hurricane Earl Track posted at 2am has me knowing after living through Juan while in Halifax working at the time the Hurricane arrived at 12AM. If you live in an Older Home=Go to a Shelter...Don't Expect to have power for Two weeks, Take a walk around your property before it arrives and check out to see if any Large trees could come down through your house....because down they will come. And expect anything lighter then cinder blocks to float and be projectiles. POOR APPLE FARMERS-Their done for this year.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007.html
 

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GramPa
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Discussion Starter #20
Returning all my Hurricane precaution supplies. Local forecast now just requires an umbrella.


Issued : 5:00 AM ADT Friday 3 September 2010Rainfall warning in effect

Tropical storm warning in effect

Wind warning in effect.

Today Sunny with cloudy periods. High 32 except 25 along parts of the coast. UV index 8 or very high. Tonight Increasing cloudiness. Rain at times heavy beginning overnight. Risk of thundershowers before morning. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Wind becoming southeast 40 km/h gusting to 60 overnight. Low 19. Saturday Rain at times heavy ending in the afternoon then clearing. Risk of thundershowers early in the morning. Amount 30 to 40 mm. Wind southeast 40 km/h gusting to 60 increasing to 60 gusting to 90 in the morning then becoming west 40 gusting to 60 near noon. High 22.



This Hurricane Earl Track posted at 2am has me knowing after living through Juan while in Halifax working at the time the Hurricane arrived at 12AM. If you live in an Older Home=Go to a Shelter...Don't Expect to have power for Two weeks, Take a walk around your property before it arrives and check out to see if any Large trees could come down through your house....because down they will come. And expect anything lighter then cinder blocks to float and be projectiles. POOR APPLE FARMERS-Their done for this year.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007.html
 
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