Hey all-
Thought I would try to correct some misconceptions about weather forecasts and meteorology. Many on this form are conflating two distinct groups: broadcast meteorologists and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters.
A disclaimer here: I am retired, have never been in the employ of the NWS or any other branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). I am not and never have been a forecaster. I am a consumer of several of the NWS forecast products.
I can't watch "meteorologists" who hyperventilate when reporting the forecasts. If you take the time to look up the education of a lot of these folks, you'll see that many never actually studied the subject, they're journalism majors. Not that I have a problem with journalists, only those pretending to be scientists forecasting life and death weather events...
Mike
Broadcast meteorologists are the men and women that announce the weather on the media. It it true that you need no formal training to be a broadcast meteorologist. Many have little physical science training of any kind, but there are also broadcast meteorologists with a BS or BA in meteorology, degrees that are often tailored to becoming media personalities. And there are a few out there- often retired military forecasters- that do have a clue.
Problem is, they are employed by entertainment companies, and the pressure to entertain or be fired (unless you are a beautiful woman). If you want to get weather info., entertainment media “news” programs are not the place to go.
By contrast, NWS forecasters (hardly) ever appear on television. They are busy producing actual weather forecasts from the ever-changing information streams that NWS provides: mainly numerical forecasts, but also a host of hourly surface observations, upper-air soundings, satellite imagery, radar data from around the world to name a few.
Many NWS forecasters have MS degrees, some even have Ph.Ds. A higher degree in meteorology or atmospheric science, and a number of folks with a bachelor’s degree in meteorology find their degrees are insufficient to get them through graduate programs. (NOTE, the terms “meteorology” and “atmospheric science” are more or less interchangeable”).
Probably the most common degree for incoming MS students is physics. While the BS meteorology major is studying
Public Communications Skills, the aspiring BS physics major is studying his/her butt off learning
Vector Calculus and
Statistical Mechanics. And that just gets the BS Physics major a foot in the academic door so they can spend a couple more grueling years applying their physics skills to atmospheric problems
I heard we were in for some weather, as in bad, later today and through the night, so I was checking around the interweb for updates and found these terms describing what could occur in the Northeast part of the Country. Don't recall seeing these terms before. Anyhow, it would seem if the process of bombogenesis occurs, then you have a bomb cyclone. Which means, generally, pressure must drop 24 millibars (a unit of pressure) within 24 hours, plus other factors I guess.
But when they start the "sky is falling" gloom & doom forecasts when a storm "of biblical proportions" approaches,I tend to be skeptical,and have to switch it off,it gets my anxiety levels off the scale--then most of the time,it fizzles out and nothing "severe" happens..
I swear they sensationalize the forecasts to increase the sales of bread,milk,batteries,and other things,like generators & snow blowers,shovels,etc.....
So, who would
you trust to give you the true skinny on the weather forecasts? It should be noted that the NWS forecasters DO write forecasts. Plain text forecasts, nothing fancy, to be understood by “everyman” for every zone in the US. They tend to be terse and dry:
Saturday Night
Snow likely before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 33. East wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%
.
Not very exciting is it?
Then the broadcast meteorologist gets hold of it and “prettifies” it.
Better enjoy that clear weather while you can, because the clouds will move in soon, bringing a 60% chance of snow to many places in the area. and you better hang on to your hats, because the
25 mph winds that are haunting us now will increase to 40 mph or even greater early tomorrow morning.
Several errors and exaggerations have been inserted into the “beautification” process, (can you find them?) but it is more sexy. The two forecasts say kind of the same thing, but not really
I stick with the NWS forecasts. They vary in accuracy- forecasting is a tough sport- but the closer to the horse’s mouth the better.
Miscellanea
The terms have previously been used among meteorologists. As with any technical field, there is scientific jargon associated.
I'd never heard of a "Polar Vortex" until a couple/few years ago.
You think they didn't exist before?...
Well, Tropical Storm Nestor didn't live up to the dire warnings. We did get some much needed rain as it has now rained twice since July. We had been in a moderate drought and I think this took us out of that. The grass is certainly greening up again and likely will need to mow next week.
Just have to say that this continual "crying WOLF" with any weather other than clear & sunny is getting real old. Way back on Tuesday, all the weather websites had the banners warning of the imminent destruction that Nestor would bring with high winds, torrents of rain, storm surge, flooding and any other description of fear. Weather is something that happens and can change several times in a day.